Global warming and the future of storms

New research by Kerry Emanuel suggests that hurricanes will become more frequent and more intense

Dr. Kerry Emanuel

We know that changes we are making to the Earth's climate will (and currently are) affecting weather. Some of the impacts are clear to see and easy to quantify. For instance, in some regions, droughts are becoming more severe and longer lasting, while in other locations, the opposite is occurring – more precipitation is falling in heavier downbursts. Two competing issues have to be considered. First, increased temperatures are increasing evaporation rates i.e., drying is occurring. Second, increased temperatures lead to more water vapor in the atmosphere, which results in heavier rain/snow events. In regions that are currently dry, the first issue dominates, whereas in wet regions, the second is more important.

Despite these competing effects, scientists can detect changes in the drying/wetting patterns around the globe, and these are linked to human emissions.

Typhoon Sanba

For other weather patterns, the evidence is not as clear. For instance for tornadoes, our observations just aren't good enough to make categorical conclusions. Reliable records in the U.S. started in the early 1950s, but since then, there have been improvements in our sensing instruments, which makes it difficult to assess long-term trends.

A similar situation exists for hurricanes and cyclones. We are more able to observe and quantify these storms now, so we have to ask whether increases in these storms is caused by global warming, by improved measurements, or by both. Similarly, we have had very destructive storms in the U.S. recently, but is the damage due to more powerful storms or increased infrastructure in storm areas?

One useful tool that can help answer these questions are climate models. Climate models are like virtual reality computer programs. You can input today's conditions (wind speed, temperatures, pressures, etc.) and predict what will happen in the future. Today's weather forecasts use similar prediction tools. In some respects, "climate" computer programs and "weather" computer programs are different, but there are some clear similarities. "Weather" prediction programs try to give short-term prognostications of local weather a few days into the future. "Climate" predictions attempt to describe long-term trends in large-scale climate patterns years and decades into the future.

So, how can computer programs help us answer the hurricane/cyclone question? With the help of the program, a scientist can play "what if" scenarios and see how future storms will change. What if greenhouse gases increase? What if ocean temperatures increase? What if wind speeds change? How will these things affect the number and strength of hurricanes?

Very recently, a publication appeared by perhaps the world's best-known hurricane scientist, Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT. Dr. Emanuel combined global computer simulations with more regional simulations to look into the future at the evolution of storms. What he found was surprising. Because the storms will become stronger and more numerous, within the next century, the power dissipated by future storms will increase by about 50 percent. What was particularly interesting was that his findings show increases in both strong and weaker cyclones.

I asked Dr. Emanuel to summarize the present understanding of hurricanes, and he responded with the following insights:

• The incidence of high-intensity tropical cyclones (Safir-Simpson categories 3-5) should increase, and the amount of rainfall in these storms should increase, upping the potential for freshwater flooding. These changes will not necessarily occur where tropical cyclones develop and thrive today. "Indeed," wrote Emanuel, "it is likely that there will be decreasing activity in some places, and increasing activity in others; models do not agree on such regional changes."

• Though experts disagree on this point, Emanuel's work suggests that weak events (tropical storms and Cat 1-2 storms) will become more frequent.

• "Very little work has been done on the problem of storm size," wrote Emanuel, "what little research has been done suggests that storm diameters may increase with global temperature. This can have a profound influence on storm surges, which are the biggest killers in tropical cyclone disasters. " More

 

Hurricane Season: Predicting in Advance What Could Happen

The Department of Homeland Security's National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), jointly housed at Sandia and Los Alamos national laboratories, studies how hurricanes and other disasters disrupt critical infrastructure, such as roads, electricity and water systems.

Hurricane season began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. It generally peaks in August and September, notwithstanding Superstorm Sandy's appearance late last October.

With the onset of hurricane season, NISAC has two jobs: conducting annual "hurricane swath" analyses of probable impacts on the Gulf Coast and East Coast and providing quick analyses of crisis response in the face of an imminent hurricane threat to the United States.

Analyses allow preliminary look at storm

A swath analysis looks at how a hurricane might interrupt critical services and at impacts to infrastructure specific to an area, such as petroleum and petrochemical industries in Houston or financial services in New York City. It also looks at such things as the economic impact of the storm or how it could upset food deliveries.

Federal officials pull swath analyses off the shelf when a hurricane seems likely to hit a particular place. They used the New Orleans report a few days before Hurricane Isaac headed toward that city last August.

"While it was too far out for us to do our analysis, they could use the report as a first cut," said Dan Pless, NISAC program lead at Sandia.

NISAC's portfolio includes a dozen swath analyses updated every few years, two cities at a time. A team coordinated by Mark Pepple, NISAC fast response lead, this year updated reports for Houston and Corpus Christi, Texas; last year the work focused on Miami and Tampa. Updates keep information from becoming too stale, Pless said.

NISAC came up with the original analyses, but is working on updates with state and local officials and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agencies, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Reports analyze 'reasonable bad scenario'

Each report uses a "reasonable bad scenario" that would be possible in the particular area, with local officials deciding what scenario would be most useful for disaster planning, said Pless and Pepple. For example, a Category 5 hurricane isn't likely in New York City because colder waters dampen hurricane strength, but a Category 3 is within reason.

"These storms form in the Caribbean, they form in the Gulf. They can get quite strong down there," Pless said. "They don't form in the North Atlantic. They have to travel there."

The analyses -- also useful in other natural disasters -- consider impacts to the infrastructure, the population and the economy, Pless said.

"We look at where power outages are likely," he said. "For Houston, it would examine the possible national impact on petroleum supplies and whether we should worry about that."

They look at so-called food deserts: urban areas where food delivery might be interrupted, he said.

NISAC also has found that some local officials want more demographic information. Officials in Florida, with its high retiree population, want to know where the elderly are concentrated, Pless said.

The most difficult part of an analysis is defining a scenario because every place is different and a wide range of agencies must reach consensus, he said.

Team activated for big hurricanes

Once NISAC is activated, the team focuses on exactly what's in the storm's projected path.

"Anytime a hurricane is going to make landfall in the U.S. we're busy at some level. If it's going to be a Category 3 or higher, you can pretty much figure we're going to go to full activation," Pless said. The decision whether to activate and to what degree comes from NISAC's program manager at the DHS.

Pepple helps lead NISAC's crisis response. When federal officials activate a team, he coordinates with DHS and Sandia's partners at Los Alamos, which has its own team doing analyses. The labs collaborate. For example, Los Alamos models and analyzes the impacts to electricity and metropolitan water systems, and Sandia uses those results to look at impacts to energy such as petroleum and natural gas or sectors such as transportation and banking.

He's also responsible for getting Sandia's team together, not just pulling in people, but identifying what expertise or simulation tools are needed. While a crisis response team always needs at least one economist to assess economic impact, a hurricane in Houston would require more analyses of the petrochemical sector than a hurricane in North Carolina, where agriculture could be a larger concern.

NISAC and DHS collaborate on how much time the team has before it locks in a prediction of the hurricane's track toward land. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues regular landfall projections. At some point, NISAC has to lock in a storm track, or prediction, on which to base analyses.

The amount of time for analysis is shrinking, Pless said. NISAC had 48 hours for Hurricane Gustav, which hit the South in late August and early September 2008.

"They said that's too much time, the track can change too much in that time," Pless said.

The team had 24 hours to do its analysis for Hurricane Ike, which hit the Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi coasts in September 2008. By the time Irene hit the East Coast in August 2011, the deadline had dropped to 12 hours. "We're roughly around 10 to 11 hours at this point," Pless said.

The team provides similar information as for a swath analysis, with less detail but using the hurricane's strength and what's in its path. Sometimes the team adds a caveat that damage could be worse if the storm changes path.

Questions spike when hurricane hits

The team also responds to a flurry of questions from DHS just before landfall. For Ike, Pless said, officials wanted to know which large Houston-area water treatment plants were most likely to lose power and would need one of three available FEMA generators.

For Sandy, NISAC's report identified subways in the storm surge zone and did some power outage modeling. NISAC's analyses complement those done by the Department of Energy or other agencies by providing unique evaluations of how damage to one type of infrastructure, such as power lines, would impact other infrastructures. As the designated sector-specific agency for the energy infrastructure sector, DOE's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability helps prepare for and respond to energy-related emergencies like Hurricane Sandy.

Questions to the team usually spike after a hurricane hits. That was particularly true for Sandy.

"You had this massive power outage and they were wondering, 'OK, we have these cell towers and a lot of them have diesel generators for backup. Those last 48 to 72 hours and the power isn't coming back in 48 to 72 hours. How do we prioritize that? Few of the gas stations have fuel, what's going on? Is it that they don't have power or because eight of the nine fuel delivery terminals in New Jersey were down?'" Pless recalled.

Sandy reversed the normal workload. "Usually we have a lot heavier workload going into the hurricane before landfall and generally have tired people and a lighter workload afterward. On Sandy, we worked the opposite. We had a relatively light workload going in and then it got really busy," Pless said. "That was because it was that weird perfect storm." More

 

Short Term WHO Consultancy Available

Short Term WHO Consultancy Available - in Media and Health Inter-Sectoral Action.

 

TOR is as follows:

2. Description of tasks

Working closely with the Urban Health team, the contract holder will develop a policy brief on Impact Assessment for Multisectoral Action on Health.

Specifically, s/he will be tasked to:

• Review relevant background literature and internal documents on Impact Assessment (including Health and other Impact Assessments) and Multisectoral Action on Health

• Develop a policy brief on the topic, tailored to clarifying the concepts and importance of the use of impact assessment for media professionals.

3. Payment terms

The payment rate is US$ 200 per working day. The total expected number of working days is 30. The total amount is: US$ 200 x 30 days = US$ 6,000.

The consultant does not need to be at our office in Kobe, Japan.

 

For more information see: http://www.who.int/kobe_centre/en/

 

5 MW Lithium-Ion Energy Storage System Unveiled In Oregon — Will Provide Storage For Intermittent Renewable Energy Sources

A new, state-of-the-art, 5 MW lithium-ion energy storage system was recently unveiled in South Salem, Oregon. The new energy storage system — which is a demonstration project — will allow the storage of the excess electricity occasionally produced by some intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, as well as providing other services.

The energy storage system is integrated with a localized power zone — a microgrid — which means that about 500 customers in the area will be able to retain power even during regional electrical blackouts. The microgrid, and the new energy storage system, are both a part of the Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration Project — a project designed with the intention of testing out innovative technologies and energy solution methods in the real world, and potentially spurring their wide-scale adoption.

“The Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration Project is a successful public-private partnership involving 17 organizations across five Northwest states,” said Patricia Hoffman, assistant secretary for DOE’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, which oversees regional smart grid demonstration projects. “It is a highly innovative project demonstrating transactive energy management, which is a promising, cost-effective way to integrate variable renewable energy, energy storage and demand response at scale. The celebration of the Salem Smart Power Center makes it clear that Oregon is helping to lead the way on energy storage commercialization and grid modernization.”

The 5 MW lithium-ion energy storage system was developed by Portland General Electric as part of its contribution to the Battelle-led Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration Project. Half of the facility’s development cost of $23-million-dollars was covered by the US Department of Energy. As a whole, the Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration Project is a five-year, $178-million project that launched in 2010. More

 

 

 

New Date For Jamaica's 115MW Renewable Energy Plant! - Aug 2016

The country will have to wait more than three years before the proposed 115 megawatts (MW) of energy from renewable sources is added to the national grid.

The introduction of the renewable energy should cut Jamaica's oil bill substantially (US$55 million at current prices) but the three-year wait will mean a painful delay for Jamaicans desperate for lower electricity bills.

The Office of Utilities Regulation (OUR) last week accepted 28 proposals for the development of projects aimed at generating the renewable energy.

The submissions, from 20 local and overseas companies, were revealed during a public opening of bid documents last Monday.

The proposals included two for wind projects, one for biomass, and 25 for solar energy.

Eight of the proposals were received from local companies.

The bidders include the local entities Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica (PCJ); Wigton Windfarm Limited; Blue Mountain Renewables, and BNRG Renewables Jamaica.

In its proposal, the PCJ submitted a 20.98-megawatt photovoltaic solar-generating project at a cost of approximately US$63.16 million.

Wigton Windfarm submitted a proposal for a 24-megawatt wind energy power generation project, at a cost of US$45 million.

Blue Mountain Renewables submitted a 34-megawatt wind power generation project for approximately US$77 million.

The overseas investors include Wirsol AG and Roc Energy, which have tendered a proposal for a 78-megawatt solar park power generation project at a cost of some US$140 million; and New York-based entity, Roraima Consulting Incorporated, which submitted a bid for a 24-megawatt solar power generating project, at a cost of approximately US$59 million.

Project manager at the OUR, Peter Johnson, said the high level of interest in supply renewable energy was very encouraging.

"We are hoping that these proposals will actually bear fruit and that we will get some good solutions out of (them)," stated Johnson.

"This is the first tranche of that and we're very excited with what we have seen."

According to Johnson, with the bids in hands, the OUR will now move towards the evaluation processes, which should be completed by August 5.

BEST RELIABILITY

"The evaluation will look at the best proposals in terms of the best reliability, the best price (and) will also look to see if one proposal or a combination of proposals will best fit the needs of the country."

The highest-ranked applications will be notified on September 11, with the OUR looking to complete the negotiation of project agreements by June 18, 2014.

The selected applicants are expected to post their performance security deposit by June 28, 2014, and begin construction in August 2014.

The proposed commissioning date of the new renewable energy plant is August 2016.

A request for proposals was issued by the OUR in November 2012, when it invited interested entities to submit bids for the supply of up to 115MW of renewable energy electricity generation to the national grid on a 'Build, Own and Operate' basis.

 

The Impending Deluge

Fifty thousand drowned, steamships aground with their bows among trees, cattle rolled head over heels by gigantic waves — stories of great sea surges from past centuries abound. Many of them cascaded ashore when coastlines were relatively stable, killing everyone in their path. Today, we live in a warming world of rising sea levels, where tens of millions of us live a few meters above the ocean. The potential for sudden cataclysm is greater than ever.

The record of history is sobering. On Jan. 16, 1362, a severe southwesterly storm swept across the British Isles. The wooden spire of Norwich cathedral in eastern England collapsed.

Hours later, the Grote Mandrenke, “The Great Killing of Men,” descended on the Low Countries at high tide. Huge waves carried everything before them. “An infinity of people perished,” fishing fleets became matchwood, entire herds of cattle and sheep perished in the raging waters. Three centuries later, in 1634, another cataclysmic storm surge brought sea levels four meters above normal to the Strand Islands off northern Germany. As many as 15,000 people and 50,000 livestock drowned.

These were but two of the savage attacks on the low-lying coasts of the North Sea, this from a patch of ocean that was largely dry land less than 8,000 years ago. The geologists call it Doggerland, a sunken landscape that once formed the North Sea. It was a land of sluggish rivers, lakes and extensive wetlands. A few thousand hunters thrived there, living off fish and small game, using antler-tipped spears.

We know this because a trawler dredged one from the seabed in 1932. Doggerland slowly vanished in the face of sea level rise caused by thawing ice sheets, an ever-changing world for those who lived there. By 5,500 B.C., Doggerland had disappeared under the chilly waters of the North Sea.

The inhabitants of the Low Countries have been battling the ocean ever since. For over a thousand years, they have tried to wall off the ocean. Today, millions of people live in densely occupied coastal landscapes behind great barriers. The Dutch government’s hideously expensive Delta Works was the culmination of centuries of defense work, but the authorities never relax in the face of a warming future with predictions of more extreme weather events. They are planning for at least 10,000-year storms in a world of rising sea levels.

It’s hard for us to imagine what the world was like at the end of the Ice Age, when sea levels were about 220 meters lower and the North Sea was dry land.

Take the Nile, which flowed into the Mediterranean through narrow gorges. As the ocean rose, the now silt-heavy Nile formed a fertile delta that became the granary of the pharaohs. All was well two thousand years ago, when Alexandria had only 300,000 inhabitants. Today, the Aswan Dam far upstream has drastically reduced silt flow. Nearly 10 million people live in Alexandria and Cairo. The delta is slowly vanishing under rising sea levels, its groundwater contaminated by saltwater, the soils depleted. The delta is no longer a balanced system. Perhaps 7 million people will suffer regularly from starvation by 2100.

The world’s sea levels have risen since the 1860s, with no end in sight. Skeptics argue that this is a long-term problem, measured in centuries rather than generations, that there is plenty of time to adapt to changing shorelines. But they forget about the more frequent extreme-weather events with their sea surges predicted for the future.

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Superstorm Sandy in 2012 were both wake-up calls for Americans living near sea level. Katrina devastated New Orleans, leaving 80 percent of the city underwater. Levees broke, over 1,500 people died, and thousands were stranded, especially poorer people. Sandy’s surge flooded Lower Manhattan and the New Jersey Shore. Subways flooded, thousands of houses became rubble. With $60 billion of damage, recovery will take years, while a debate over long-term solutions sputters along. Does one wall off New York, force people to build on higher ground, or restore protective mangrove swamps? The answers will be long in coming, but meanwhile, as cities like Miami grow, our vulnerability increases every year.

The threat is even more ominous elsewhere. Today, some 200 million people live within five meters of sea level, many of them in megacities like Shanghai. The Netherlands has the resources to wall off the sea, but what about other parts of the world? Small Pacific islands like Tuvalu, Alaska’s barrier island communities, and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean are seriously endangered and may even cease to exist.

Bangladesh, most of which is river delta country, lies at the head of the Bay of Bengal, where intense cyclones and their fast-moving storm surges have the potential to kill thousands. And kill they do, in a country with an exploding population, chronic poverty and a long coastline. Cyclone Bhola in 1970 killed over half a million people, at a time when the population was much smaller than today. To its credit, the government has developed early warning systems, erected refuge buildings, and created evacuation strategies that have saved many lives. But these do not answer the longer-term problem of fast-growing urban populations, threats to rice crops, seawater contaminated groundwater, and nowhere to move millions of people forced from their homes by rising seas. More

 

The Midway Project - Death of the Albatross

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Chris Jordan on The Midway Project

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In this video by Riley Morton, photographer Chris Jordan discusses his Midway Project; a fine art photography series documenting the tragic phenomenon of the death of the local albatross population due to excessive intake of plastic from the Pacific Garbage Patch.

Produced by Riley Morton
Midway footage courtesy of Jan Vozenilek and Joe Schweers
Music by McKenzie Stubbert

A Necessary Guide For An Age Of Reason

With the beginnings of a state of chaos developing around the globe it is time for those of us with the vision to suggest an alternate and safer path of development to ensure a peaceful and sustainable future for our descendants.

The Georgia Guide Stones

We have in our future a number of developing situations that may well be drivers of conflict. There is climate change, which is a scientific theory which has consensus among 97 percent of climate scientists on the planet. They are in agreement that it is anthropogenic (or human induced) and unless mitigated will have a disastrous impact on the world as we know it.

We have, in the near-term, a worsening resource shortage, which includes fossil fuel, minerals, metals, and rich productive agricultural land.

All of the above mentioned situations will cause further knock on effects, climate change is predicted to cause changes in rainfall patterns, some regions getting heavier rains and others getting less. This will affect agricultural output and food security.

Warming of the atmosphere will and in fact is causing sea level rise which will eventually mean evacuation of islands and all the problems with the resettling of refugees.

By 2050 the global population will be in the region of nine billion. How are we going to be able to feed all of these people? More people means more homes, roads, parking lots, and all of this means less land for agriculture. Rising atmospheric temperatures will result in reduced food production as for every one degree that the temperature rises grain production falls by ten percent.

The War on Terror conducted by the United States without benefit of the Rule of Law is also a frightening and dangerous path to transverse.

We Therefore need A Guide To An Age Of Reason:

1. Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.

2. Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.

3. Unite humanity with a living new language.

4. Rule passion — faith — tradition — and all things with tempered reason.

5. Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.

6. Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.

7. Avoid petty laws and useless officials.

8. Balance personal rights with social duties.

9. Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.

10. Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.

More

 

Bermuda's Water Harvesting / Catchment

As countries around the world scramble to address the looming water crisis, Bermuda's unique roofs may have the answer to rainwater harvesting.

Why I’m Marking Passing 400 ppm By Getting Back On An Aeroplane

Why I’m Marking Passing 400 ppm By Getting Back On An Aeroplane

By Rob Hopkins

16 May, 2013
Transition Culture

In November 2006, I sat at the back of the Barn Cinema, Dartington, and watched ‘An Inconvenient Truth‘. It had such an impact on me that by the time it ended, I had decided that I couldn’t just leave the cinema without marking the event by making some kind of change in my life. I decided that evening not to fly again, and I haven’t flown since. I have played an active part in supporting the growth of an international movement in 40 countries since then, participating in countless workshops, and discussing Transition internationally through Skype and pre-recorded talks, most of which I begin with how much carbon I have saved by not travelling in person. However, I recently watched the film ‘Chasing Ice’, and it had, if anything, a more visceral impact than ‘An Inconvenient Truth’. My resolution at the end of watching it, re-enforced by the recent passing, for the first time, of 400 ppm of C02 in the atmosphere, was that it was time to get back on a plane, and I want to use this post to tell you why.

When I was born, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere was 325.36 ppm. I was 19 when it passed 350 ppm for the first time, the level which climate scientists such as James Hansen argueis the highest concentration possible if we are to “preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted” When, in 2004, the first seeds of Transition were sown when I sat with my students in a classroom at Kinsale Further Education College to watch The End of Suburbia, we were at 376.15 ppm. On the day this blog first began with its first post, we were at 378.29 ppm.

When I watched ‘An Inconvenient Truth’, it was 380.18 parts per million (ppm). On the day Transition Network was formally established we had reached 386.40 ppm. On the day I left Venice last September, following the Degrowth conference (which I had travelled to by train), seeing Venice from the sea as this extraordinary jewel just inches above sea level, concentrations had reached 391.06ppm. When I sat down to watch ‘Chasing Ice’ it was 395.55 ppm.

A couple of weeks ago we passed, for the first time, 400 ppm. It’s just a number, but it had a deep impact on me, a sobering line in the sand, a deeply troubling face. As Joe Romm at Climate Progress puts it:

Certainly as we hit 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in human existence, with not even a plan to avoid 600 ppm, 800 ppm, and then 1000 — not even a national discussion or an outcry by the so-called intelligentsia – it is worth asking, why? Is there something inherent in homo “sapiens” that makes us oblivious to the obvious?

This means that current levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are far higher than they have been for the last 4.5 millions years at least. The graph below shows how concentrations have fluctuated over the past 800,000 years. By way of context, 30,000 years ago, Cro-Magnon man was flourishing, hunting and gathering and painting cave walls. The Guardian have created a great infographic that tells the story of 400 ppm and what it means in a very understandable way. As Damien Carrington in The Guardian puts “the last time so much greenhouse gas was in the air was several million years ago, when the Arctic was ice-free, savannah spread across the Sahara desert and sea level was up to 40 metres higher than today”.

In spite of all the efforts of the green movement, Transition initiatives, a slew of international conferences and meaningless agreements, the rise has continued inexorably. It shows little sign of slowing, the International Energy Agency warning last year that the world is on track for at least a 6 degree rise in temperatures by 2100. More

 

I have just been accepted by Al Gore's Climate Reality project for training a a presenter. I am therefore off to Istanbul on June 11th. See http://climaterealityproject.org/leadership-corps/ I have been trying for four years to get invited to the training, but finally succeeded this year. I will then have all the materials, videos, PPT's to present around the world. I am doing this for the same reason that Rob Hopkins speaks about in the above article. I refuse to give up, I refuse to give in to what looks inevitable. Editor

 

Rooftop Solar Owners vs Utilities – The Battle Begins

You don’t have to go too far into a document prepared by the US-based Edison Electric Institute (EEI) to realise what is at stake for centralised utilities from the threat of rooftop solar.

The EEI, a trade group that represents most investor owned utilities in the US, said solar PV and battery storage were two technologies (along with fuel cells and storage from electric vehicles) that could “directly threaten the centralised utility model” that has prevailed for a century or more.

How worried should they be? A lot, said the EEI. The ability of rooftop solar, battery storage and energy efficiency programs to reduce demand from the grid would likely translate into lower prices for wholesale power and reduced profits. Worse still, customers were just as likely to “leave the system entirely” if a more cost-competitive alternative is available.

“While tariff restructuring can be used to mitigate lost revenues, the longer-term threat of fully exiting from the grid (or customers solely using the electric grid for backup purposes) raises the potential for irreparable damages to revenues and growth prospects.”

In the US, utilities are now seeking to protect their business models by pushing hard against net metering and seeking to influence the pace and manner of deployment of other technologies and new energy market concept that don’t fit the decades old model.

In Australia, much the same has been happening. RenewEconomy reported on the concerns of utilities in this article last month. Feed-in-tariffs have been wound back, as they were supposed to have been as technology costs fell, but now the pendulum is swinging the other way, and utilities – with the apparent complicity of state-based pricing regulators – are now trying to extract as much revenue from solar customers as they can.

It is a dangerous game. Leading electricity executives and market analysts suggest the rollout of rooftop solar is inevitable and “unstoppable” – unless, of course, by regulation and changing tariffs.

Little wonder then, that solar consumers and rooftop solar providers are starting to organise themselves to protect the interests of individual consumers, and the industry as a whole.

In Australia, a new solar campaign initative known as “Solar Citizens” is being launched this week to ensure the interests of solar owners are protected from changes to laws and policies by power companies and governments.

Solar Citizens sees its mandate as helping existing and would-be solar owners to advocate for their rights as energy investors and aims to push for panels on every Australian rooftop.

Solar Citizens Manager Dr Geoff Evans says 2.5 million Australians now live under a solar roof (one million homes have rooftop solar PV systems), and have invested about $8 billion. Some forecasts expect those numbers to triple by 2020.

“That’s an amazing show of support for solar,” Evans said. “But to date, when the interests of solar owners have come under threat, there has been no way for them to come together and protect their interests. With Solar Citizens that will change.”

One of Solar Citizens initial targets will be Queensland, there the local competition authority has canvassed a range of controversial tariff structures that appear to favour government owned utilities over consumers, as RenewEconomy highlighted in March in this article, and again two days later. In other states such as NSW, individual homeowners have to negotiate with retailers to get a price for the power that retailer then sells to their neighbours.

“There’s a real power imbalance in those negotiations” said Evans. “The situations in NSW and Queensland highlights the trend we have seen across the country,” said Dr Evans. “We will soon be working on campaigns with solar owners in every state to make sure all Australian solar owners are ensured a fair go.”

“Network operators and energy retailers don’t want to see Australian’s take back control of the grid. They are making it harder for Aussies to go solar in order to protect their profits.

The Solar Citizens campaign is emerging in Australia just as solar companies in the US are organising themselves to counter the same potential threats to their business.

Last week, Bloomberg reported, SolarCity, Sungevity, Sunrun and Verengo, which accounted for the majority of US rooftop solar installations (most of which are financed by leasing arrangements)) formed a lobbying group called the Alliance for Solar Choice to combat efforts by “monopoly utilities” to quash programs that support renewable energy in 43 states.

The alliance is seeking initially to preserve net metering policies that require utilities to purchase surplus electricity at retail rates from customers with rooftop solar systems, and says it is responding to “the coordinated utility attack on net metering throughout the country.” More

 

 

D-G Invited to Climate Reality Leadership Corps Training

Nick Robson Director-General of the Cayman Institute has been invited to Istanbul to take part in former Vice-President Al Gore's Climate Reality Leadership Corps Training.

The Climate Reality Project, founded and chaired by former Vice President and Nobel Laureate Al Gore, is dedicated to unleashing a global cultural movement demanding action on the climate crisis. Despite overwhelming international scientific consensus on climate change, the global community still lacks the resolve to implement meaningful solutions. The Climate Reality Project exists to forge an unwavering bedrock of impassioned support necessary for urgent action. With that foundation, together we will ignite the moral courage in our leaders to solve the climate crisis.

The Climate Reality Project employs cutting-edge communications and grassroots engagement tools to break the dam of inaction and raise the profile of the climate crisis to its proper state of urgency. With a global movement more than 2 million strong and a grassroots network of Climate Leaders trained by Chairman Al Gore, we stand up to denial, press for solutions, and spread the truth about climate change to empower our leaders to solve the climate crisis.

I want to change the world and stop climate change.

All around the world, members of the Climate Reality Leadership Corps trained by our Chairman and former Vice President Al Gore are standing up and making a difference on the climate crisis. They’re leading by example, speaking to their communities about how climate change affects their daily lives—and what we can do to solve it. They’re appearing in the media, activating social networks, and—most of all—inspiring people everywhere to join us in confronting the defining issue of our time. More

 

 

 

Why Are We So Stupid ?

So it seems that global carbon dioxide levels will likely reach 400 parts per million within days.

And it didn’t even make the news here. This will be a level unprecedented in human history since our atmosphere has probably not contained so much C02 since the Pliocene Epoch which precedes any people by about 2 million years.

This forecast is based on data from the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) in Hawaii, a highly institution in such things.

How quickly we have changed things and how little action we are taking

Trying to get real action at a Federal level in the US seems to be about as plausible and sensible as trying to get some gun control.Seems we much prefer our own destruction.

So why are we so stupid ?

Why would we actually want to be the architect of our own demise. And take so many other species with us. Man is the only species that can do that.

Is it the same reason that gun control just simply does not take root in the US. That vested , strong, moneyed interests have got control of the political process and we are but mere puppets to their greed?

Or have we got some fundamental evolutionary flaw that means that we simply can’t see beyond the end of this month ?

Bad news guys- Governments are not going to fix this. In the case of the US Government it seems powerless despite the rhetoric. China actually seems to be pushing into a position of leadership.

But either way it comes down to each one of us. What is it that we love more than our kids, and grandkids? Is there anything ?

Well if not….you have no choice but to act. More

 

 

The Challenge of Climate Engineering

7th Kiel Institute Summer School on Economic Policy
Kiel, Germany, June 9 – June 15, 2013

1. Motivation

Climate change poses a major challenge to governments, industry and society. Since international negotiations on the control of greenhouse gas emissions have so far not led to an agreement that is able to avoid dangerous climate change, researchers, governments, and actors in civil society have started to consider, among other things, new options that could support the mitigation of climate change. Carbon capture and storage and climate engineering, including both carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM), are prominent options considered. Before testing or implementing any of these options, the economic, social, ethical and technical aspects as well as the associated risks need to be evaluated. The summer school aims to provide information on the current state of developments in the field of climate engineering covering a variety of disciplines.

The summer school addresses PhD students and researchers from various disciplines, as well as members of policy institutions. It comprises lectures by professors, presentations by participants, reading time, consultation sessions and social events. Participants are expected to actively engage in debates on the topics discussed in class and jointly prepare the panel discussion with policy makers at the final day of the summer school.

2. Organisers

The summer school is organised by the Kiel Institute in collaboration with partners from the Helmholtz-Centre for Ocean Research GEOMAR, the Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel and the Excellence Cluster “Future Ocean”. Participants will be hosted in the guest house of the Kiel Institute (“Haus Weltclub”).

3. The Speakers

James R. Fleming (Colby College, Maine)Sebastian Harnisch (University of Heidelberg)Klaus Lackner (Earth Institute, Columbia University)Thomas Leisner (KIT, Karlsruhe)Andreas Oschlies (Geomar Kiel)Christopher Preston (University of Montana)Alexander Proelss (University of Trier)Wilfried Rickels (Kiel Institute)

4. Fees

The fee to attend the summer school amounts to 250 €. The fee covers full board at the guest house of the Kiel Institute. Participants have to arrange travel themselves. Nearest airports are Hamburg and Luebeck. The Luebeck airport is served by Ryanair, Hamburg is served by several airlines. Public transportation is available from both airports to the centre of Kiel.

In order to apply, please download the application form, fill it out and send it by the 30th of April 2013 to kissep@ifw-kiel.de together with your curriculum vitae.

♦ application form (doc-file)

In case of questions please contact: kissep@ifw-kiel.de