Philip Klotzbach and William Gray with the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University say they have increased their seasonal forecast from their initial early December prediction. "We anticipate an above-average probability of United States major hurricane landfall," they now say.
The hurricane season officially opens on June 1 of each year and ends in November. The team estimates that Florida is at elevated risk for at least one major hurricane landfall on the state's east coast and also on its Gulf coast this season.
The U.S. East Coast, including peninsular Florida, is at a 45 percent risk this season, while the average for the last century is 31 percent, Klotzbach and Gray estimate. The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville is at a 44 percent risk this year, while the average for the last century on the Gulf Coast is 30 percent, The probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States is estimated to be about 135 percent of the long-period average. More >>>